Blab Crypto
Standard Chartered Analyst Declares Bitcoin Bottom at $59,000 as Oil Prices Drop and SpaceX IPO Pulls Capital
Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoff Kendrick, issued a note on Friday that Bitcoin’s recent dip to roughly $59,000 marks the lowest point of the current cycle and signals the end of the so‑called crypto winter.
Kendrick’s assessment is based on three events that converged on the same day. First, West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to about $86 a barrel after President Trump announced that a US‑Iran peace deal could be finalized before the G7 summit. Second, SpaceX’s $75 billion initial public offering was launched, a move that Kendrick said drew capital away from Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) as investors sold shares to free cash for the offering. Finally, Bitcoin’s price fell to a wick low of $59,000, a level that Kendrick identified as the cycle’s bottom.
The note represents a reversal of Kendrick’s February warning, when he cut his near‑term Bitcoin target to $50,000 and cautioned that the market would face further pain. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $64,000, having recovered from the $59,000 low.
Kendrick cited technical confirmation as well. The price‑action indicator known as the SAR (stop‑and‑reverse) flipped bullish at $59,168, the first time it has been below the price in weeks. He said that if the SAR signal holds, it supports the idea that the market has found a new floor.
To confirm the bottom, Kendrick lists three conditions that must be met today. First, Bitcoin ETFs must show net inflows; the funds have experienced roughly $5 billion of outflows since mid‑May, the sharpest selling period since they began. Second, oil prices must keep falling; the current WTI level is $86.12 a barrel. Third, Strategy Inc., a publicly traded Bitcoin holder, must announce a new Bitcoin purchase on Monday.
If all three conditions are satisfied, Kendrick argues the bottom is verified. If the ETF inflows do not materialise, or oil stops declining, the $59,000 wick would be invalidated and the SAR would lose its bullish signal.
In a bearish scenario, the market would move toward $55,000–$56,000. Key resistance levels above the current price include $65,000, the 20‑day simple moving average at $68,157, and the 50‑day simple moving average at $74,426. Should ETF inflows and oil declines confirm, the next target would be $68,000–$71,000, the first leg of a recovery.
The broader context for the Bitcoin price action includes the ongoing volatility of the crypto market. Bitcoin has experienced a 53% drawdown from its October 2025 all‑time high of $126,000 to the $59,000 low. The market has been influenced by regulatory developments, institutional flows, and macro‑economic factors such as commodity prices.
The oil price decline is tied to geopolitical developments. Trump’s statement about a potential US‑Iran peace deal has reduced uncertainty in the Middle East, which historically has impacted energy markets. The SpaceX IPO, meanwhile, represents a significant capital outflow from the crypto sector, as investors redirected funds to the aerospace company.
Standard Chartered’s analysis is one of several recent reports that highlight the importance of macro‑economic indicators for crypto valuation. The bank’s research team has been monitoring ETF flows, oil prices, and corporate actions such as IPOs to gauge market sentiment.
At present, Bitcoin remains above the $60,000 threshold, and the SAR remains bullish. The next few days will be critical as ETF inflows, oil prices, and Strategy Inc.’s potential purchase are observed. Market participants will be watching these data points closely to determine whether the $59,000 low is a true bottom or a temporary dip.
In summary, Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick has identified a potential bottom for Bitcoin at $59,000, citing a confluence of oil price declines, a SpaceX IPO, and a technical signal. Confirmation will depend on ETF inflows, continued oil price weakness, and a new Bitcoin purchase by Strategy Inc. If confirmed, the market could target $68,000–$71,000. If not, a move toward $55,000–$56,000 is likely.
Kendrick’s assessment is based on three events that converged on the same day. First, West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to about $86 a barrel after President Trump announced that a US‑Iran peace deal could be finalized before the G7 summit. Second, SpaceX’s $75 billion initial public offering was launched, a move that Kendrick said drew capital away from Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) as investors sold shares to free cash for the offering. Finally, Bitcoin’s price fell to a wick low of $59,000, a level that Kendrick identified as the cycle’s bottom.
The note represents a reversal of Kendrick’s February warning, when he cut his near‑term Bitcoin target to $50,000 and cautioned that the market would face further pain. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $64,000, having recovered from the $59,000 low.
Kendrick cited technical confirmation as well. The price‑action indicator known as the SAR (stop‑and‑reverse) flipped bullish at $59,168, the first time it has been below the price in weeks. He said that if the SAR signal holds, it supports the idea that the market has found a new floor.
To confirm the bottom, Kendrick lists three conditions that must be met today. First, Bitcoin ETFs must show net inflows; the funds have experienced roughly $5 billion of outflows since mid‑May, the sharpest selling period since they began. Second, oil prices must keep falling; the current WTI level is $86.12 a barrel. Third, Strategy Inc., a publicly traded Bitcoin holder, must announce a new Bitcoin purchase on Monday.
If all three conditions are satisfied, Kendrick argues the bottom is verified. If the ETF inflows do not materialise, or oil stops declining, the $59,000 wick would be invalidated and the SAR would lose its bullish signal.
In a bearish scenario, the market would move toward $55,000–$56,000. Key resistance levels above the current price include $65,000, the 20‑day simple moving average at $68,157, and the 50‑day simple moving average at $74,426. Should ETF inflows and oil declines confirm, the next target would be $68,000–$71,000, the first leg of a recovery.
The broader context for the Bitcoin price action includes the ongoing volatility of the crypto market. Bitcoin has experienced a 53% drawdown from its October 2025 all‑time high of $126,000 to the $59,000 low. The market has been influenced by regulatory developments, institutional flows, and macro‑economic factors such as commodity prices.
The oil price decline is tied to geopolitical developments. Trump’s statement about a potential US‑Iran peace deal has reduced uncertainty in the Middle East, which historically has impacted energy markets. The SpaceX IPO, meanwhile, represents a significant capital outflow from the crypto sector, as investors redirected funds to the aerospace company.
Standard Chartered’s analysis is one of several recent reports that highlight the importance of macro‑economic indicators for crypto valuation. The bank’s research team has been monitoring ETF flows, oil prices, and corporate actions such as IPOs to gauge market sentiment.
At present, Bitcoin remains above the $60,000 threshold, and the SAR remains bullish. The next few days will be critical as ETF inflows, oil prices, and Strategy Inc.’s potential purchase are observed. Market participants will be watching these data points closely to determine whether the $59,000 low is a true bottom or a temporary dip.
In summary, Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick has identified a potential bottom for Bitcoin at $59,000, citing a confluence of oil price declines, a SpaceX IPO, and a technical signal. Confirmation will depend on ETF inflows, continued oil price weakness, and a new Bitcoin purchase by Strategy Inc. If confirmed, the market could target $68,000–$71,000. If not, a move toward $55,000–$56,000 is likely.
