Blab Crypto
Bitcoins Post-Iran Peace Deal Bounce Fails to Shift Bear Market: On-Chain Metrics Show Buyers Still Underwater
Bitcoin briefly rose to $65,000 after the June 14 Iran peace deal, but on‑chain data published by Glassnode’s weekly report shows that 95 % of recent buyers remain underwater, keeping the market in bear territory.
The price spike was triggered by a rapid drop in WTI crude from $86 to $76, which removed the geopolitical risk premium that had compressed Bitcoin for three weeks. Although Bitcoin recovered from its lows, it is still 15 % below the True Market Mean (TMM) at $77,200, the on‑chain threshold that separates bear from bull regimes. Until the price climbs above this level, the structural read remains bearish.
Short‑Term Holder Market‑Value‑to‑Realised‑Value (MVRV) recovered from 0.81 to 0.90 after the bounce, yet it remains below the 1.0 breakeven point. The implied cost basis for recent buyers sits near $72,600, leaving them roughly 10 % underwater on average. Until STH MVRV reaches 1.0, this cohort continues to act as overhead supply during any attempted recovery.
Capital is still leaving Bitcoin. The Realised Cap, which measures the aggregate capital invested in the network, contracted 1.45 % over 90 days to $1.07 trillion. The 30‑day Realised Profit/Loss Ratio is 0.53, confirming that losses are outpacing profits across most of the past month. The one‑tentative positive is the 7‑day Realised Cap change, which has nearly stalled at –0.18 %, suggesting the outflow pace may be easing.
Glassnode outlines three conditions that must be met for a credible transition out of bear territory: Bitcoin must reclaim the TMM at $77,200, Short‑Term Holder MVRV must return above 1.0, and Realised Cap must turn positive on a 90‑day basis.
Order‑book dynamics also reflect a cautious market. Binance’s spot order book has shifted to bid‑side dominance, with passive buyers absorbing supply at lower levels rather than selling into strength. Open interest remains subdued, and funding rates sit near neutral, indicating neither crowded long nor aggressively short positions. Options markets confirm easing stress: one‑month implied volatility fell from 50 % to 35 % as the protection premium built during the sell‑off unwinds. The negative gamma cluster sits at $68,000, just above the current spot, meaning dealer hedging activity could accelerate any move through that level in either direction.
The 95 % underwater figure underscores that most recent buyers are still operating at a loss, which can dampen upward momentum and increase supply pressure if prices rise. Combined with the Realised Cap contraction, this suggests that capital is still flowing out of Bitcoin, even if the pace is slowing.
In summary, Bitcoin remains below key on‑chain thresholds that signal a bear regime. Buyers are largely underwater, capital outflows persist, and market structure points to continued caution. Until the price surpasses the True Market Mean, Short‑Term Holder MVRV reaches breakeven, and Realised Cap turns positive, the structural bearishness is likely to persist.
The price spike was triggered by a rapid drop in WTI crude from $86 to $76, which removed the geopolitical risk premium that had compressed Bitcoin for three weeks. Although Bitcoin recovered from its lows, it is still 15 % below the True Market Mean (TMM) at $77,200, the on‑chain threshold that separates bear from bull regimes. Until the price climbs above this level, the structural read remains bearish.
Short‑Term Holder Market‑Value‑to‑Realised‑Value (MVRV) recovered from 0.81 to 0.90 after the bounce, yet it remains below the 1.0 breakeven point. The implied cost basis for recent buyers sits near $72,600, leaving them roughly 10 % underwater on average. Until STH MVRV reaches 1.0, this cohort continues to act as overhead supply during any attempted recovery.
Capital is still leaving Bitcoin. The Realised Cap, which measures the aggregate capital invested in the network, contracted 1.45 % over 90 days to $1.07 trillion. The 30‑day Realised Profit/Loss Ratio is 0.53, confirming that losses are outpacing profits across most of the past month. The one‑tentative positive is the 7‑day Realised Cap change, which has nearly stalled at –0.18 %, suggesting the outflow pace may be easing.
Glassnode outlines three conditions that must be met for a credible transition out of bear territory: Bitcoin must reclaim the TMM at $77,200, Short‑Term Holder MVRV must return above 1.0, and Realised Cap must turn positive on a 90‑day basis.
Order‑book dynamics also reflect a cautious market. Binance’s spot order book has shifted to bid‑side dominance, with passive buyers absorbing supply at lower levels rather than selling into strength. Open interest remains subdued, and funding rates sit near neutral, indicating neither crowded long nor aggressively short positions. Options markets confirm easing stress: one‑month implied volatility fell from 50 % to 35 % as the protection premium built during the sell‑off unwinds. The negative gamma cluster sits at $68,000, just above the current spot, meaning dealer hedging activity could accelerate any move through that level in either direction.
The 95 % underwater figure underscores that most recent buyers are still operating at a loss, which can dampen upward momentum and increase supply pressure if prices rise. Combined with the Realised Cap contraction, this suggests that capital is still flowing out of Bitcoin, even if the pace is slowing.
In summary, Bitcoin remains below key on‑chain thresholds that signal a bear regime. Buyers are largely underwater, capital outflows persist, and market structure points to continued caution. Until the price surpasses the True Market Mean, Short‑Term Holder MVRV reaches breakeven, and Realised Cap turns positive, the structural bearishness is likely to persist.
