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Bernstein Cuts Circle Stock Target to $140 Amid Open USD Competition
Bernstein, a respected research firm, trimmed its price target for Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) from $190 to $140 on July 25, 2026, while keeping an outperform rating. The new target, set against a closing price of $64.32 on July 28, represents a 118 % upside.
Circle’s shares have slipped 15 % in the past month, a drop that follows the June 30 launch of the Open USD consortium—a stable‑coin initiative backed by more than 140 payment, banking and fintech firms. The consortium will issue a dollar‑backed token on the Base blockchain that redistributes reserve income to its network partners, with major members such as Visa, Mastercard and Stripe.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani, who led the Bernstein note, believes the threat posed by Open USD is overstated. He pointed out that Circle already signed memoranda of understanding with many of the same entities now in the consortium, and that these existing relationships should cushion any competitive impact.
Visa executives have clarified that the payment giant will stay "multi‑coin and multi‑chain," positioning itself to help clients connect to the stable‑coin ecosystem rather than pick a single winner. The comment came in a recent interview with a financial news outlet.
Founded in 2013, Circle Internet Group runs a platform that facilitates the issuance and transfer of stablecoins such as USDC and EURC, and it also offers a tokenized money‑market fund, USYC. The company went public on the NYSE in June 2025 after raising $1.1 billion in private funding.
In Q1 2026, Circle reported total revenue and reserve income of $694 million, according to a press release from its investor relations office. USDC supply reached an all‑time high of about $78 billion in that same quarter.
Despite the new competition, Circle’s market position remains robust. Its stablecoin holds a sizable share of the U.S. dollar‑denominated stable‑coin market, and its network infrastructure supports cross‑chain transfers. Bernstein’s analysis suggests that while the consortium may exert pressure on Circle’s moat, the company’s long‑term growth prospects remain favorable.
The price target adjustment reflects a recalibration of expectations rather than a wholesale downgrade. Bernstein’s analysts maintain that the $140 target still offers substantial upside, given the current share price and the company’s fundamentals.
Over the past 12 months, Circle’s stock has fallen 65 %, dropping from an all‑time high of $169.50 in July 2025 to $64.32 in July 2026. The decline has been driven largely by the launch of Open USD and broader market volatility in the crypto sector.
Investors will now monitor how the consortium’s token performs once it becomes available on exchanges and whether it can capture volume from Circle’s existing user base. The consortium’s open‑protocol design allows members to issue their own USD‑denominated tokens that conform to shared technical and reserve standards.
In the coming weeks, analysts will likely assess Open USD’s impact on Circle’s market share and the broader stable‑coin ecosystem. The company’s ability to maintain its network effects and regulatory compliance will be key in determining whether the $140 target remains realistic.
For now, Circle’s stock remains a high‑volatility investment, with a price target that signals optimism from a major research firm despite recent competitive challenges.
Circle’s shares have slipped 15 % in the past month, a drop that follows the June 30 launch of the Open USD consortium—a stable‑coin initiative backed by more than 140 payment, banking and fintech firms. The consortium will issue a dollar‑backed token on the Base blockchain that redistributes reserve income to its network partners, with major members such as Visa, Mastercard and Stripe.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani, who led the Bernstein note, believes the threat posed by Open USD is overstated. He pointed out that Circle already signed memoranda of understanding with many of the same entities now in the consortium, and that these existing relationships should cushion any competitive impact.
Visa executives have clarified that the payment giant will stay "multi‑coin and multi‑chain," positioning itself to help clients connect to the stable‑coin ecosystem rather than pick a single winner. The comment came in a recent interview with a financial news outlet.
Founded in 2013, Circle Internet Group runs a platform that facilitates the issuance and transfer of stablecoins such as USDC and EURC, and it also offers a tokenized money‑market fund, USYC. The company went public on the NYSE in June 2025 after raising $1.1 billion in private funding.
In Q1 2026, Circle reported total revenue and reserve income of $694 million, according to a press release from its investor relations office. USDC supply reached an all‑time high of about $78 billion in that same quarter.
Despite the new competition, Circle’s market position remains robust. Its stablecoin holds a sizable share of the U.S. dollar‑denominated stable‑coin market, and its network infrastructure supports cross‑chain transfers. Bernstein’s analysis suggests that while the consortium may exert pressure on Circle’s moat, the company’s long‑term growth prospects remain favorable.
The price target adjustment reflects a recalibration of expectations rather than a wholesale downgrade. Bernstein’s analysts maintain that the $140 target still offers substantial upside, given the current share price and the company’s fundamentals.
Over the past 12 months, Circle’s stock has fallen 65 %, dropping from an all‑time high of $169.50 in July 2025 to $64.32 in July 2026. The decline has been driven largely by the launch of Open USD and broader market volatility in the crypto sector.
Investors will now monitor how the consortium’s token performs once it becomes available on exchanges and whether it can capture volume from Circle’s existing user base. The consortium’s open‑protocol design allows members to issue their own USD‑denominated tokens that conform to shared technical and reserve standards.
In the coming weeks, analysts will likely assess Open USD’s impact on Circle’s market share and the broader stable‑coin ecosystem. The company’s ability to maintain its network effects and regulatory compliance will be key in determining whether the $140 target remains realistic.
For now, Circle’s stock remains a high‑volatility investment, with a price target that signals optimism from a major research firm despite recent competitive challenges.
