Blab Crypto
Bitcoin Holds Near 50-Day EMA as Spot ETF Inflows Continue and Geopolitical Tensions Ease
Bitcoin (BTC) is perched just below its 50‑day exponential moving average (EMA) at $64,650, trading at $64,316. The EMA represents a key resistance zone; a sustained breakout above it would lift BTC toward the 100‑day EMA at $67,079 and, ultimately, the 200‑day EMA at $72,649. Technical indicators are mixed: the relative strength index (RSI) sits at a neutral 51, while the moving‑average convergence divergence (MACD) remains below the zero line, indicating that bullish momentum is still limited.
Institutional demand is evident from recent spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded fund (ETF) flows. SoSoValue data shows that U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded a net inflow of $211.49 million on Tuesday, following an inflow of $170.09 million the day before. The two‑day streak of positive net flows is the strongest for the week and suggests that investors are adding exposure to BTC through regulated products.
Geopolitical developments have also helped create a more risk‑tolerant environment. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the United States could reach a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday or Wednesday of the week. A report from Axios notes that the U.S., Iran, and Oman are close to an interim agreement that would allow a 60‑day temporary arrangement for safe shipping through the strait. The potential easing of tensions in the Persian Gulf has reduced uncertainty in global energy markets.
Energy‑market conditions have been supportive as well. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) announced on Sunday that it would increase oil production starting in September, which has helped bring crude prices down to a low not seen since June 13. Lower oil prices can ease inflationary pressures and reduce expectations for a more hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that market participants now price a 58.9 % probability of a September rate hike, down from 64.7 % earlier in the week.
Bitcoin’s price action remains constrained by short‑term technical levels. The immediate support level is at $64,004; a break below this would expose the market to a deeper retracement and could trigger renewed selling pressure. Conversely, a clear and sustained move above the 50‑day EMA would remove the current downside bias and could set the stage for a longer‑term rally toward the 100‑day and 200‑day EMAs.
In summary, Bitcoin is holding near a critical technical threshold while institutional inflows into spot ETFs continue to provide a buying base. Geopolitical easing around the Strait of Hormuz and a modest increase in oil supply are reducing risk‑aversion in global markets. The probability of a Fed rate hike has slipped, supporting risk assets such as BTC. The next key test for Bitcoin will be whether it can break above the 50‑day EMA and maintain that level, which would signal a shift from a corrective stance to a potential new upward trend.
Institutional demand is evident from recent spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded fund (ETF) flows. SoSoValue data shows that U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded a net inflow of $211.49 million on Tuesday, following an inflow of $170.09 million the day before. The two‑day streak of positive net flows is the strongest for the week and suggests that investors are adding exposure to BTC through regulated products.
Geopolitical developments have also helped create a more risk‑tolerant environment. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the United States could reach a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday or Wednesday of the week. A report from Axios notes that the U.S., Iran, and Oman are close to an interim agreement that would allow a 60‑day temporary arrangement for safe shipping through the strait. The potential easing of tensions in the Persian Gulf has reduced uncertainty in global energy markets.
Energy‑market conditions have been supportive as well. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) announced on Sunday that it would increase oil production starting in September, which has helped bring crude prices down to a low not seen since June 13. Lower oil prices can ease inflationary pressures and reduce expectations for a more hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that market participants now price a 58.9 % probability of a September rate hike, down from 64.7 % earlier in the week.
Bitcoin’s price action remains constrained by short‑term technical levels. The immediate support level is at $64,004; a break below this would expose the market to a deeper retracement and could trigger renewed selling pressure. Conversely, a clear and sustained move above the 50‑day EMA would remove the current downside bias and could set the stage for a longer‑term rally toward the 100‑day and 200‑day EMAs.
In summary, Bitcoin is holding near a critical technical threshold while institutional inflows into spot ETFs continue to provide a buying base. Geopolitical easing around the Strait of Hormuz and a modest increase in oil supply are reducing risk‑aversion in global markets. The probability of a Fed rate hike has slipped, supporting risk assets such as BTC. The next key test for Bitcoin will be whether it can break above the 50‑day EMA and maintain that level, which would signal a shift from a corrective stance to a potential new upward trend.
