Blab Crypto
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Reach $853 Million as U.S. Jobs Report Fuels Market Rally, Wintermute Signals Caution
Bitcoin spot ETFs drew a record $853.5 million in net inflows last week, the largest single‑week haul since April, according to a market update from Wintermute, a leading cryptocurrency market‑making firm. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone accounted for more than 80 % of the total, while Ethereum‑focused ETFs added $244.9 million for a fifth consecutive positive week.
The rally was sparked by the U.S. July employment report, which showed a decline of 23 000 jobs—well below the 80 000 jobs forecast by economists. The drop lowered the market’s odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike from 55 % to 40 %. The weaker data lifted risk assets across the board, including gold, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500.
Over the week, gold rose 7.25 %, the Nasdaq climbed 5.09 %, and the S&P 500 gained 3.51 %. Bitcoin increased 2.15 % and Ethereum 1.39 %. Brent crude fell 6.85 % after Iran and Oman moved toward a navigation framework for the Strait of Hormuz, easing the geopolitical risk premium that had been supporting oil prices.
Wintermute’s analysis notes that Bitcoin’s price, which touched an August high above $65,300 during the payrolls print, still lagged the S&P 500. The firm says the gap indicates that the ETF buying is being met by supply somewhere in the market. While the inflows were strong, the price impact was muted, suggesting that the incremental seller—those who were adding Bitcoin in anticipation of a rally—may have already been exhausted.
"ETF inflows are back, but we need to see them continue for a little longer before turning outright constructive," Wintermute wrote. "The desk wants the ETF bid to hold through the end of summer before changing its view, especially with a hot CPI on Wednesday that could push September hike odds back above 50 % and remove the rally’s floor."
Key events for the remainder of the week include the Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, August 12, the Producer Price Index on Thursday, August 14, and Retail Sales on Friday, August 15. The Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole meeting will take place from August 27‑29, followed by the Clarity Act cloture vote on September 15.
In summary, Bitcoin ETFs are once again attracting institutional capital, but the market remains sensitive to macro‑economic data. The July jobs report lowered expectations for a Fed rate hike, lifting risk assets, yet the Bitcoin price has not yet matched the broader equity rally. Wintermute’s cautious stance highlights the need for sustained inflows and favorable inflation data before a clear bullish trend can be confirmed. Investors and market observers will watch the upcoming CPI release and the Fed’s policy outlook to gauge whether the current momentum can be sustained.
The rally was sparked by the U.S. July employment report, which showed a decline of 23 000 jobs—well below the 80 000 jobs forecast by economists. The drop lowered the market’s odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike from 55 % to 40 %. The weaker data lifted risk assets across the board, including gold, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500.
Over the week, gold rose 7.25 %, the Nasdaq climbed 5.09 %, and the S&P 500 gained 3.51 %. Bitcoin increased 2.15 % and Ethereum 1.39 %. Brent crude fell 6.85 % after Iran and Oman moved toward a navigation framework for the Strait of Hormuz, easing the geopolitical risk premium that had been supporting oil prices.
Wintermute’s analysis notes that Bitcoin’s price, which touched an August high above $65,300 during the payrolls print, still lagged the S&P 500. The firm says the gap indicates that the ETF buying is being met by supply somewhere in the market. While the inflows were strong, the price impact was muted, suggesting that the incremental seller—those who were adding Bitcoin in anticipation of a rally—may have already been exhausted.
"ETF inflows are back, but we need to see them continue for a little longer before turning outright constructive," Wintermute wrote. "The desk wants the ETF bid to hold through the end of summer before changing its view, especially with a hot CPI on Wednesday that could push September hike odds back above 50 % and remove the rally’s floor."
Key events for the remainder of the week include the Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, August 12, the Producer Price Index on Thursday, August 14, and Retail Sales on Friday, August 15. The Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole meeting will take place from August 27‑29, followed by the Clarity Act cloture vote on September 15.
In summary, Bitcoin ETFs are once again attracting institutional capital, but the market remains sensitive to macro‑economic data. The July jobs report lowered expectations for a Fed rate hike, lifting risk assets, yet the Bitcoin price has not yet matched the broader equity rally. Wintermute’s cautious stance highlights the need for sustained inflows and favorable inflation data before a clear bullish trend can be confirmed. Investors and market observers will watch the upcoming CPI release and the Fed’s policy outlook to gauge whether the current momentum can be sustained.
