Blab Crypto
Bitcoin Holds at $76,500 as Bond Yields Rise and Fed Hike Expectations Mount
Bitcoin hovered near $76,500 on Wednesday, a level that follows a swift retreat from its August high of $81.5 k. The pullback aligns with a global sell‑off in bond markets, which has pushed the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield to its highest point since January 2025 and lifted the Japanese 10‑year yield above 3 %, its tallest in three decades.
Higher yields have bolstered the U.S. dollar and raised the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold. Market pricing now reflects a 66 % probability of a September Fed rate hike, a sharp jump from 35 % a week earlier, after Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish address at the Jackson Hole symposium.
The backdrop to the yield climb includes Brent crude trading above $95 a barrel amid renewed U.S.–Iran tensions in the Middle East. Energy‑price pressure has amplified worries that inflation may stay elevated, nudging the Fed toward keeping rates higher for longer.
Bitcoin’s August rally, which saw the price climb 25 % from the start of the month, has entered a consolidation phase. Technical indicators suggest the cryptocurrency is trading near the 78.6 % Fibonacci retracement of its $57.7 k–$82.9 k swing, with a key support line at $77 k. The relative strength index (RSI) has slipped out of overbought territory, leaving room for a modest upside. A break below $67 k would undermine the near‑term bullish trend.
Institutional demand remains a pivotal factor. Global Bitcoin exchange‑traded products (ETPs) recorded inflows of 52,152 BTC in the week to August 27, the largest since November 2024. Strategy, the largest Bitcoin ETF, also returned to buying for the first time since June, adding 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million. The shift from outflows in May and June to inflows in August suggests a potential reversal of the selling pressure that had driven the price lower.
September has historically been a challenging month for Bitcoin, with CoinGlass data showing an average return of about –2.9 %. However, the past three September sessions have all ended higher, indicating that seasonality alone may not dictate the price trajectory.
Market participants now focus on the upcoming U.S. non‑farm payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday, which could confirm or refute expectations of a September rate hike. A stronger‑than‑expected jobs reading could reinforce the case for a hike, while a weaker reading might dampen expectations. A CPI inflation release next week will also be closely watched, as it feeds into the Fed’s policy outlook.
The Fed’s data‑dependent approach means that any surprise in the NFP or CPI could trigger a sharp market reaction. Bitcoin, which tends to perform better in lower‑rate environments, may see its price move in tandem with the broader macro narrative.
In summary, Bitcoin is holding near $76,500 as bond yields rise and the market anticipates a possible September Fed rate hike. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETPs provide a counterweight to the macro‑risk environment, while technical levels suggest a consolidation around $77 k with upside potential if the price can break above $80 k. The outcome of the U.S. NFP report and CPI data will be pivotal in determining whether the current trend continues or reverses.
Higher yields have bolstered the U.S. dollar and raised the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold. Market pricing now reflects a 66 % probability of a September Fed rate hike, a sharp jump from 35 % a week earlier, after Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish address at the Jackson Hole symposium.
The backdrop to the yield climb includes Brent crude trading above $95 a barrel amid renewed U.S.–Iran tensions in the Middle East. Energy‑price pressure has amplified worries that inflation may stay elevated, nudging the Fed toward keeping rates higher for longer.
Bitcoin’s August rally, which saw the price climb 25 % from the start of the month, has entered a consolidation phase. Technical indicators suggest the cryptocurrency is trading near the 78.6 % Fibonacci retracement of its $57.7 k–$82.9 k swing, with a key support line at $77 k. The relative strength index (RSI) has slipped out of overbought territory, leaving room for a modest upside. A break below $67 k would undermine the near‑term bullish trend.
Institutional demand remains a pivotal factor. Global Bitcoin exchange‑traded products (ETPs) recorded inflows of 52,152 BTC in the week to August 27, the largest since November 2024. Strategy, the largest Bitcoin ETF, also returned to buying for the first time since June, adding 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million. The shift from outflows in May and June to inflows in August suggests a potential reversal of the selling pressure that had driven the price lower.
September has historically been a challenging month for Bitcoin, with CoinGlass data showing an average return of about –2.9 %. However, the past three September sessions have all ended higher, indicating that seasonality alone may not dictate the price trajectory.
Market participants now focus on the upcoming U.S. non‑farm payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday, which could confirm or refute expectations of a September rate hike. A stronger‑than‑expected jobs reading could reinforce the case for a hike, while a weaker reading might dampen expectations. A CPI inflation release next week will also be closely watched, as it feeds into the Fed’s policy outlook.
The Fed’s data‑dependent approach means that any surprise in the NFP or CPI could trigger a sharp market reaction. Bitcoin, which tends to perform better in lower‑rate environments, may see its price move in tandem with the broader macro narrative.
In summary, Bitcoin is holding near $76,500 as bond yields rise and the market anticipates a possible September Fed rate hike. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETPs provide a counterweight to the macro‑risk environment, while technical levels suggest a consolidation around $77 k with upside potential if the price can break above $80 k. The outcome of the U.S. NFP report and CPI data will be pivotal in determining whether the current trend continues or reverses.
