Blab Crypto
Bitcoin Holds Above 200-Week Moving Average, Analysts Debate Bottom Level
Bitcoin has stayed above its 200‑week moving average for a second consecutive week, a level that has historically marked the line between bull and bear markets. The recent slide to $59,000 has ignited a debate among analysts about whether the price has hit a cycle bottom or is headed for a deeper decline toward $30,000–$40,000, a question that will shape expectations for the next market phase.
The 200‑week moving average (200WMA) smooths Bitcoin’s price over roughly four years, the length of a full market cycle. Since early May 2026, the 200WMA has hovered between $61,000 and $62,800, and Bitcoin has remained above that line. Historically, the 200WMA has served as a support point in every previous bear‑market bottom, and its recent crossing above $61,000 was highlighted by Blockstream CEO Adam Back on May 30.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that the recent sell‑off did not accelerate downward. Instead, Bitcoin rebounded quickly from the $59,000 low and reclaimed earlier support levels. He suggested that this price behaviour increases the probability that the cycle bottom is already relatively close, rather than still significantly lower. Van de Poppe said that aggressive downside targets of $30,000 to $40,000 are becoming less likely given how the market responded.
At the same time, an Elliott Wave analysis circulating among traders outlines a different scenario. It proposes that Bitcoin is still in the early stages of a multi‑year correction that could last four to five years and keep the asset range‑bound at much lower levels. In this view, the next rally would be a corrective move rather than the start of a new bull market. It could still produce a two‑to‑three‑fold return from the lows but would likely be choppy, mentally exhausting, and followed by another significant decline.
The key signal to watch is the structure of the first major recovery from whatever the final low turns out to be. A strong five‑wave impulse higher would suggest the bear market is over, while a weaker three‑wave move would indicate the larger correction is still developing.
The 200‑week moving average near $62,800 remains the immediate battleground. Holding above it keeps both scenarios open. A sustained break below would shift probability toward the more bearish multi‑year outlook. The reactions to support over the coming weeks will be more informative than any single price level. How Bitcoin bounces, and whether that bounce shows genuine strength or fades quickly, will determine which scenario is playing out.
In short, Bitcoin’s continued position above its 200‑week moving average keeps the market in a state of uncertainty. Analysts are divided between a near‑term bottom that could lead to a modest rally and a longer‑term correction that would keep prices range‑bound for several years. Market participants will be watching the next few weeks for signs of sustained support or a break below the 200‑week line.
The 200‑week moving average (200WMA) smooths Bitcoin’s price over roughly four years, the length of a full market cycle. Since early May 2026, the 200WMA has hovered between $61,000 and $62,800, and Bitcoin has remained above that line. Historically, the 200WMA has served as a support point in every previous bear‑market bottom, and its recent crossing above $61,000 was highlighted by Blockstream CEO Adam Back on May 30.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that the recent sell‑off did not accelerate downward. Instead, Bitcoin rebounded quickly from the $59,000 low and reclaimed earlier support levels. He suggested that this price behaviour increases the probability that the cycle bottom is already relatively close, rather than still significantly lower. Van de Poppe said that aggressive downside targets of $30,000 to $40,000 are becoming less likely given how the market responded.
At the same time, an Elliott Wave analysis circulating among traders outlines a different scenario. It proposes that Bitcoin is still in the early stages of a multi‑year correction that could last four to five years and keep the asset range‑bound at much lower levels. In this view, the next rally would be a corrective move rather than the start of a new bull market. It could still produce a two‑to‑three‑fold return from the lows but would likely be choppy, mentally exhausting, and followed by another significant decline.
The key signal to watch is the structure of the first major recovery from whatever the final low turns out to be. A strong five‑wave impulse higher would suggest the bear market is over, while a weaker three‑wave move would indicate the larger correction is still developing.
The 200‑week moving average near $62,800 remains the immediate battleground. Holding above it keeps both scenarios open. A sustained break below would shift probability toward the more bearish multi‑year outlook. The reactions to support over the coming weeks will be more informative than any single price level. How Bitcoin bounces, and whether that bounce shows genuine strength or fades quickly, will determine which scenario is playing out.
In short, Bitcoin’s continued position above its 200‑week moving average keeps the market in a state of uncertainty. Analysts are divided between a near‑term bottom that could lead to a modest rally and a longer‑term correction that would keep prices range‑bound for several years. Market participants will be watching the next few weeks for signs of sustained support or a break below the 200‑week line.
