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HTX Research Links Bitcoins Next Bull Run to Monetary Policy, Treasury Liquidity and Regulatory Clarity
In a fresh quarterly outlook, HTX Research pinpoints three macro‑financial levers that could lift Bitcoin out of its recent slump. The research arm of the Huobi‑HTX group released the report on Thursday, citing Bitcoin’s current price of roughly $61,957 and arguing that a sustained rally in the third quarter will hinge on easing monetary conditions, the liquidity supplied by U.S. Treasury operations, and clearer regulatory guidance.
The analysis marks a turning point for Bitcoin. Once a niche, crypto‑native asset, it is now treated by institutional investors as a global liquidity barometer rather than a speculative play. The report notes that Bitcoin’s price fell in the second quarter largely because of tighter U.S. monetary policy, a stronger dollar, weaker inflows into spot exchange‑traded funds, and a slowdown in corporate treasury demand.
The first catalyst identified by HTX is a relaxation of monetary policy. The report stresses that the Federal Reserve’s stance—whether it continues to defend a hawkish reaction function—will be the key macro variable. Persistent inflation could keep rates elevated for longer, dampening demand for risk assets. HTX suggests that a measurable easing in policy would lift liquidity and support Bitcoin’s price.
The second factor is U.S. Treasury liquidity. Rather than focusing on quantitative tightening, market participants should monitor Treasury issuance, the Treasury General Account, and bank reserves. These elements have become the primary drivers of liquidity available to financial markets. The report notes that the Treasury’s balance sheet activity and the flow of reserves into the banking system can influence Bitcoin’s market dynamics.
The third driver is regulatory clarity. HTX highlights the progress of the Canadian CLARITY Act as an example of policy that could shape the crypto landscape. The report states that clearer regulation would likely increase the beta of Ethereum, DeFi projects, stablecoins, and real‑world asset tokens relative to Bitcoin. The analysis points out that regulatory developments are the largest policy variable for the third quarter.
HTX also observes that Bitcoin’s market behaviour has fundamentally changed with the rise of institutional participation. The asset is no longer primarily a crypto‑native or geopolitical hedge but increasingly a macro asset whose performance mirrors global liquidity conditions. Investors are now more selective, and the market is less willing to pay high valuations based solely on narrative.
The research further explains that ecosystem growth must translate into tangible value capture—fees, revenue, token burns, or other mechanisms—to justify higher valuations. This shift helped Bitcoin outperform many altcoins during the second quarter, according to the analysis.
The report’s findings echo comments from former Binance chief financial officer Wei Zhou, who identified similar catalysts for a Bitcoin rally. While Zhou’s remarks were made on social media, HTX’s research provides a structured framework that aligns with those observations.
In summary, HTX Research presents a clear set of conditions that could trigger Bitcoin’s next sustained bull market. The asset’s performance will likely depend on a combination of easing monetary policy, robust Treasury‑driven liquidity, and the arrival of regulatory clarity. Investors and market observers will be watching these variables closely as the third quarter unfolds.
The outlook remains uncertain, and the report does not guarantee a rally. It simply outlines the macro‑financial environment that could support a recovery in Bitcoin’s price.
The analysis marks a turning point for Bitcoin. Once a niche, crypto‑native asset, it is now treated by institutional investors as a global liquidity barometer rather than a speculative play. The report notes that Bitcoin’s price fell in the second quarter largely because of tighter U.S. monetary policy, a stronger dollar, weaker inflows into spot exchange‑traded funds, and a slowdown in corporate treasury demand.
The first catalyst identified by HTX is a relaxation of monetary policy. The report stresses that the Federal Reserve’s stance—whether it continues to defend a hawkish reaction function—will be the key macro variable. Persistent inflation could keep rates elevated for longer, dampening demand for risk assets. HTX suggests that a measurable easing in policy would lift liquidity and support Bitcoin’s price.
The second factor is U.S. Treasury liquidity. Rather than focusing on quantitative tightening, market participants should monitor Treasury issuance, the Treasury General Account, and bank reserves. These elements have become the primary drivers of liquidity available to financial markets. The report notes that the Treasury’s balance sheet activity and the flow of reserves into the banking system can influence Bitcoin’s market dynamics.
The third driver is regulatory clarity. HTX highlights the progress of the Canadian CLARITY Act as an example of policy that could shape the crypto landscape. The report states that clearer regulation would likely increase the beta of Ethereum, DeFi projects, stablecoins, and real‑world asset tokens relative to Bitcoin. The analysis points out that regulatory developments are the largest policy variable for the third quarter.
HTX also observes that Bitcoin’s market behaviour has fundamentally changed with the rise of institutional participation. The asset is no longer primarily a crypto‑native or geopolitical hedge but increasingly a macro asset whose performance mirrors global liquidity conditions. Investors are now more selective, and the market is less willing to pay high valuations based solely on narrative.
The research further explains that ecosystem growth must translate into tangible value capture—fees, revenue, token burns, or other mechanisms—to justify higher valuations. This shift helped Bitcoin outperform many altcoins during the second quarter, according to the analysis.
The report’s findings echo comments from former Binance chief financial officer Wei Zhou, who identified similar catalysts for a Bitcoin rally. While Zhou’s remarks were made on social media, HTX’s research provides a structured framework that aligns with those observations.
In summary, HTX Research presents a clear set of conditions that could trigger Bitcoin’s next sustained bull market. The asset’s performance will likely depend on a combination of easing monetary policy, robust Treasury‑driven liquidity, and the arrival of regulatory clarity. Investors and market observers will be watching these variables closely as the third quarter unfolds.
The outlook remains uncertain, and the report does not guarantee a rally. It simply outlines the macro‑financial environment that could support a recovery in Bitcoin’s price.
